I usually get burned on this (especially 2016), but I forge ahead anyway because, heck, why not? It is only personal thoughts and what is going to happen is up to the fates at this point.
So, let me get right to it.
Nationally, the Democrats are going to take the House with about a 35 seat turnover. This is the critical thing right now. It gives the Democrats a voice and also subpoena power. In the Senate, I think when the dust settles we will be right back to where we are now with Republicans in control 51-49. Net zero for either side. (If O’Rourke wins, all bets are off)
In Minnesota, the US Senate will send both Klobuchar and Smith back to Washington. Klobuchar is going to get about 65% of the vote. Tina should win by about 8 points. In Congress, Angie Craig and Dean Phillips will win their races. Dan Feehan will squeak it out in the 1st. Ilhan Omar wins big in the 5th. But I fear that Joe Radinovich will lose a close one by about 2 points. That could still turn but the 8th is different than it used to be. The other Congressional races will go to incumbents. Dems will send a 6-2 majority to Congress.
In the Constitutional offices, Walz wins big (I expect double digits). Steve Simon will win big in the SOS race. I also think Keith Ellison will now pull this thing out – it will be close but I think the Democrats will come home on this one. And Wardlow is truly a lousy candidate. As for Auditor, I feel that Julie Blaha will win by about 4 to 5 points. She will benefit from a big Walz turnout.
In the legislature, I think that the Democrats will win a 2 seat majority. It will be pretty close, but the suburbs could carry this one. That special election Senate race still looks like a Republican win to keep their narrow majority. But this race is not a sure thing – Republicans are working on pretty solid home turf, but even at that, it could be just a 1 or 2 point win for them.
Governerships throughout the Midwest are looking to be big Democratic wins. Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and even Iowa are going back to the Democratic fold. I’m thinking a total of 10 State House turnovers look pretty good and that bodes well for redistricting. Worth noting that we could see legislatures turn around as well.
Tomorrow is a big day and we have been disappointed so often in the past. So if you have not voted – Do it. If you can do one more thing tomorrow – do it.
Maybe I can start sleeping again.